Afternoon folks! Just a quick update on Elsa regarding timing and impact. I honestly don’t have any major changes to my forecast from yesterday morning’s post. Please reread for details. As mentioned, this is a fast-moving storm with a max 3-6 hour duration at any location dropping a lot of rain with most places receiving 1-3” locally 3-6”. Also stronger wind gusts will be limited to coastal sections and an isolated tornado threat is possible, especially on the NE side of the storm. Flash flooding will be a problem due to amount of liquid falling over a short period of time. Power outages are possible, especially closer to the coast including ENJ, LI, E CT, RI, E MA and the Cape. This is mainly an I95 and a coastal event (NWNJ, Upper Hudson Valley, NW CT, W MA, VT W/N NH and inland ME will see little to any impact). By the way, heads up through out today as plenty of strong to severe storms are firing up across the Northeast containing heavy downpours, lots of lightning along with decent size hail! These are not part of Elsa but separate cluster of storms due to a moist and unstable airmass around the tri-state area.
Currently the center of Elsa is approximately 125 miles south of Norfolk, VA. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 50mph with higher gusts. Its traveling northeast at 21mph but its rate of forward motion will accelerate and will strengthen during its journey up the Eastern Seaboard. I provided below approximate time ranges and impacts for a few spots up the coast.
Cape May to SENJ: Rain moves in from the SE around 8-10pm becoming steadier and heavier between 12-2am and tapers off before sunrise. Expect blue skies by sunrise. Wind gusts will top out between 40-50mph.
NYC- Long Island: Bands of rain start moving into the area between 12-2am Friday, clearing between 5-8am. Total rain fall between 1-3”, higher amounts possible along with 40-50mph gusts (up to 60mph possible, especially further east on the island). Peaks of sunshine late morning early afternoon.
Cape Cod up to Boston: Elsa strengthens yet increases forward speed. Rain moves in between 8-10am, tapering off between 12-2pm. Rain totals on the Cape and Boston will be only an inch or 2 but higher amounts inland towards RI E CT and E MA. Wind gusts could reach 50-60mph, possibly near hurricane force levels.
S NH / SE ME: Heavy rain moves into area between 10-12pm tapering off between 2-4pm. Total rainfall between 1-3”. It’ll be gusty, 25-35mph, an outside higher gust up to 40-50mph possible. Skies clear late in the afternoon, a possible great sunset!
Just a heads up for Friday late afternoon into the evening hours, while skies clear out in the earlier part of the day, the Northeast may see some backend wrap around cells move through. That includes Baltimore/DC area on up the I95 corridor.
That’s it for now. Again, NOT a Hurricane but it’ll have more of a bite then a bark in specific coastal sections. Flash flooding will be an issue along with strong wind gusts, especially the further north you go up the coast. Even with modest wind gusts, trees along the east coast cannot handle SSE to E winds, a topic I’ve covered over the years. So better to be safe then sorry, move your cars away from trees if possible (social media always show crushed cars during storms, try not to be one of them). Stay dry and safe. If you have any storm photos or videos, send them in and I’ll post them with credit on Twitter, Instagram or my next post on my site! For my tri-state area followers, the brunt of Elsa’s elements will be when you’re fast asleep, which confirms what naturally comes next. Weather Never Sleeps!!