Dorian – Creep to a Crawl and Possibly Stall, But Fortunately for Floridian Folk, No Land Fall

However, Ominous Signs from Charleston to Cape Lookout

Rather than back back to the future, Hurricane Dorian drives the Delorean to the Floridian East Coast back 84 years ago to the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane, one of the worst and most intense storms to hit US, a CAT 5 which decimated the Florida Keys with 155mph winds (200mph gusts) and record low pressure. Fortunately, in the present, Dorian most likely stays off shore. Details shortly. I’m glad to be back doing what I love, that being researching, forecasting and sharing all my weather missives (puns included) to those who’ve been following me for years as well as all you new subscribers! Welcome to my new website which will be my primary source for future blogs (will still be active on my Facebook page and Twitter). Many already have subscribed here earlier in the year, but for those who haven’t, enter your email below (then check your inbox to confirm) to receive my future updates. While life has kept me off the radar for the last 6 months, I’m back and just in time for my favorite types of weather to forecast and write about, Hurricanes and Snowstorms! A Dorian mess or Siberian express, but I digress….

As my long term followers know I will continue to provide my upcoming seasonal outlooks along with the weeks ahead and down to the day to day updates. Many of you reach out and request travel forecasts before business trips and vacation plans which I will continue to provide. In between all that, I’ll be capturing shots of natures wonders through my lens (storm chasing as well), many of which are lucky to be picked up by local and national media outlets (see my About page for a few names), and perhaps another weather presentation or two in the future. Yes, weather and myself (at least over the next few days to week), never sleep! Alrighty now, lets get to the main event and the upcoming weekend (Meteorologically Fall begins Sunday!).

I realize that unless you live under a rock, we all know about Hurricane Dorian by now, which is sporting a well defined eye, is currently a Category 4 Hurricane packing 145mph winds and pressure down to 944 mb, now located approximately 445 miles east of the Florida coast. It’s a concentrated compact storm which means it doesn’t take much to steer or change its speed. Yet it is indeed powerful and potentially destructive hurricane. All eyes are on the southeast coast of Florida which has had plenty of time to prepare for the arrival of Dorian (from the classic empty bread shelves, lengthy gas lines, boarded up windows covered with expletive filled salutations to Dorian, along with unfortunate looting, State of Emergency, many schools cancelled, sporting events rescheduled, etc.).

While many are focusing on each model run, whether its the GFS the European, the ICON, HWRF and eventually the short term models like the NAM, there’s always a degree of uncertainty outside of 200 miles. Dorian has strengthened rapidly given the drop in sheer and dry air, both inhibitors. Right now its being steered by a number of moving atmospheric gears, specifically the upper level low which is weakening into the gulf resulting in Dorian’s forward motion decelerating on its approach to Florida. But while the strong Ridge kept Dorian on W to NW path, its now weakening and combined with an approaching trough, opens the door northward. There is the strong possibility that Dorian stalls near the Florida coast, never making landfall and then proceeds to travel north and parallel to the shoreline, similar to Hurricane Matthew in 2016 (while never making landfall in Florida, was still a disaster for the east coast of Florida with a million without power, billions in damage and responsible for over 585 deaths, most in Haiti). Depending on how far off the Florida coast Dorian is will dictate the level of impact, wind and coastal flooding wise.

Timing, Paths, and Impact

As of now, while the degree of uncertainty and model mayhem will still continue for the next 24 hours or so, there’s a growing consensus Dorian will approach the Florida coast late Monday night into Tuesday, YET begin its northward movement WITHOUT coming inland. The last 2 runs of the European and 0Z run of the GFS suggest that. Some have said a total recurve and out to sea is possible, but I don’t see that as being a solution at this point. In fact, IF a coastal hugger is its decided path, than I can see unfortunately, a possible landfall anywhere between Charleston to Cape Lookout, not an ideal scenario at all. While I’m getting ahead of myself (and I know many are thinking and asking), how about the Northeast and New England. Very very preliminary at this point, but I’d use a line from Myrtle Beach to Morehead from Montauk to Martha’s Vineyard up to Mt Desert Island, as a general path. VA NJ NYC CT and MA at this point, impact will be very humid, passing heavy showers and heavy surf/beach erosion and strong rip tides. BUT AGAIN, getting way ahead of myself and that’s not until next weekend, IF any impact at this point. I’ll keep you posted…..

I’ve attached a couple of model runs, maps, satellite views, etc. for you to comb through. Again, looks like a very fortunate miss for disaster for Florida. And if so, you’ll hear all the whining that everyone over reacted, etc. etc. It’s always better plan for the worst and hope for the best. I will be updating regularly here (make sure you check in as well as your inbox once you subscribe), as well on my Twitter page (AND if you don’t use you it, can see my Tweets on my site here!). As far as Labor Day Weekend (can you believe the summer is over already??), today’s the winner, with mostly sunny skies low humidity and temps in the upper 70s to low 80s. Sunday will be a bit cooler with hazy sunshine, possibly an isolated shower in the NW burbs, but mostly dry. Wish I could say the same for Monday. Not a washout, but a better chance for afternoon showers or an isolated thunderstorm. I’ll leave the rest of the week, and my Fall and Winter outlook for another post. My site is also a work in progress which I plan to add additional features to over time and tinker with a few things so I appreciate your patience. That’s it for now, stay tuned, stay safe, and if you have any plans to travel along the eastern seaboard this week, expect lengthy delays and cancellations. Landfall or not, Dorian will create a significant amount of problems this week. The devil is still in the details. And remember, weather never sleeps!