Crawl Stall and Still No Florida Land Fall, BUT Make No Mistake, MAJOR Damage WILL Be Left in Its Wake…..
Since my post yesterday, Dorian has lived up to its billing wind wise, topping out at 185 mph with over 220 mph gusts, making it one of the strongest in the Atlantic. Actually on this day in 1935, the Labor Day Hurricane made landfall in the Florida Keys and coincidentally packing 185 mph winds! Not the deepest relative to barometric pressure given its compact size compared to previous monsters. Nonetheless, given its destructive winds and slow forward motion, both the Bahama Islands, Great Abaco and Grand Bahama have been destroyed and probably setback for years. As of this writing Dorian is still raking the island moving due west at a snails pace. OK, given that Florida is nearly 100 miles away, what’s next? First, I don’t see much of a change from my post yesterday calling for a coastal hugger, landfall between Charleston and Cape Lookout, a general path connecting the 5 M’s (was a subtle hint of a Major CAT 5) of Myrtle Beach, Morehead, Montauk, Martha’s Vineyard to Mt Desert Island with our tri-state area being impacted.
So here’s the 4 most relevant points I will address to the best of my ability. 1st, when does Dorian begin to put its foot on the gas and take door # 1 into the Florida coast or door #2 parallel up the coast, and what impact can be expected along coastal sections in FL; 2nd, where and when could there be a possible landfall in SC/NC and what impacts could be felt from GA to NC; and 3rd, what type of impact will be felt in the tri-state area on north.
Point 1: Door 1 or Door Number 2 for Dorian
1st, as I briefly explained yesterday Dorian is being steered by many atmospheric spokes and gears. Its nearly stalled forward motion due in part to a upper level low which is weakening into the gulf, will continue at least for the another 12-24 hours. That said, a departing Ridge to the north and subsequent trough dipping into the east grab Dorian like a magnet and open door # 2 northward. I can’t emphasize this point enough, do not just focus on what category it is OR downplay no landfall. There’s plenty of history to look up on major damage with a hurricane riding the coast, regardless of its intensity (Matthew the most recent example). There will be tremendous flooding, major tidal surge and beach erosion, down trees and power outages up the Florida coast.
Inland will certainly feel the effects with tropical downpours, very gusty conditions and flooding but this is a coastal event. Given the topography of Cape Canaveral, Dorian will pass quite close and on its way up the gulf stream highway passing Daytona and within 100 miles of Jacksonville. Disney World, which closed for Hurricane Matthew in 2016 and only the 4th time ever (all due to Hurricanes), will likely close for the 5th time (yes, there’s 5 again), and will probably see 25-50 mph winds and 2-5″ of rain. That said, Dorian will begin its northward path late tonight or Tuesday morning, passing Cape Canaveral over night Monday into Tuesday, Jacksonville Wednesday.
Point 2: GA SC NC Impacts and Possible Landfall
Given the curvature of the Georgia coastline, its very difficult for a tropical system to make landfall but significant flooding will take place all along those little islands up to Savannah, into Hilton Head and flood prone Charleston (a passing shower floods the streets) which will be a disaster. IF Dorian should make landfall, it will more than likely be on Thursday between Myrtle Beach, Wilmington and Morehead City. Bald Head Island which jetty’s out and the whole Outerbanks area are going to take a beating, reshaped and altered in parts. Forward motion will be picking up at this point and while Dorian won’t be a CAT 4 or 5, you’re still looking at 75 to 100 mph winds.
Point 3: Mid-Atlantic, Northeast, New England??
Dorian’s path up the east coast will more than likely still be a tropical storm or contain hurricane force winds and its rate of forward motion will be accelerating. Dorian won’t be on land and won’t be making a NW turn into NJ. That said, from Norfolk and Virginia Beach to Ocean City and Delaware Bay could receive major beach erosion and tidal flooding along with 50-80mph wind gusts. It won’t be a day at the beach along the Jersey shore, south shore of LI especially Montauk. Advisories Watches and Warnings will be issued along the coast. Isolated power outages can’t be ruled out. While inland NJ, Hudson Valley and inland CT and MA are not out of the woods (unless Dorian recurves once off the NC coast which for the moment I think is not a likely path), it doesn’t take much to bring down branches and trees in our area with strong east winds, as they tend to lean east as they are used to a westerly flow. Isolated yet heavy tropical downpours from feeder bands are possible as well. Timing at this point looks like Friday and clearing out by Saturday. The eastern end of Long Island, the Cape up to northeast Maine could experience tropical to hurricane force winds for period of time. Once Dorian departs our shores for Denmark, a truly stunning Fall airmass blankets the northeast for a time!
That all said, Hurricane Dorian is still raking and pounding Grand Bahama Island for nearly 12 hours now as its forward motion has nearly stalled at 1 to 2 miles an hour, since 3am! And with sustained 165 to 175 mph winds! Traffic on the LEI and Garden State Parkway coming home later for Labor Day will be traveling faster. So my point is Dorian is going to travel over 1,300 miles over the next 6 days and the devil is in the details. Lastly, as many of my long time followers know this because I bring it up every winter, 50 to 100 mile jog east or west for a snowstorm over the tri-state area is the difference between foot of snow and nil. So the margin is very narrow, especially along the Florida coast. That’s it for now. Hopefully I was able to fix the email issue so once I post this you’ll receive an email notice of my post with a link to open. Check out my Twitter time line of all my frequent and regular updates on Dorian either by following me @weatherremarks OR you can see my feed on the right column of my site. Drive and travel safe today. I’m going to take a little nap but will be back with updates because Weather Never Sleeps!
