Good morning weather world! Given the current climate, I hope everyone was able to have an enjoyable and restful Thanksgiving. Plenty to be thankful for. Ok, time to discuss our upcoming storm tomorrow. On my post 2 weeks ago, I mentioned a possible stormy Thanksgiving weekend, perhaps a Nor’easter. In the spirit of transparency, for one, we had a nice weekend (it did pour in SNE on 🦃 Day), and two, Monday’s system isn’t a Nor’easter, but it’s going to pack a major punch. Given 2 weeks out, my idea had merit. As we close the books on November tomorrow and begin meteorological Winter (December 1st through March 1st), here’s today’s normal highs/lows and record highs/lows on this date:
Our well telegraphed storm for Monday originated down south dragging warm Gulf air leading to heavy rain and thunderstorms as it travels NE. As the low strengthens it pulls cold air on the backside creating accumulating snow in the Ohio Valley, from parts of IN/KY/WV to Cincinnati, Columbus and Cleveland, to WPA, WNY up to the Adirondacks and the Whites. However, for the I-95 corridor, from Alexandria up to Augusta, it’s the triple W’s: warm windy and wet (white arrives another time). While fortunately this is a fast moving storm, it’ll pack a punch, especially along the coastal sections. The low level jet, a ribbon of air approximately 5,000 feet up will be whipping. The speed doesn’t always transfer to the surface but can create strong to damaging wind gusts. High Wind and Flood Watches (can’t rule out a Tornado Watch as well given the history of these type of systems) will probably be issued later today.
WHAT TO EXPECT
With this particular system, sustained 30mph winds will be howling from the south, gusting up to 40-60mph from Cape Hatteras, the Jersey shore, LI up to the Cape, Boston, the Seacoast and all of the Maine coastline. The outer tip of LI, the Cape and parts of Maine could see gusts up to 60-70mph. Power outages through out the NE are possible along with beach erosion, and tidal flooding, especially with astronomical high tides impacted by a full Moon Monday. Not as severe inland, but winds will still be strong enough for isolated broken limbs and down trees in prone areas leading to power issues. Heavy rain, creating flash flooding in the usual spots will also rake the Northeast. An average of 1-2″ can be expected with higher amounts in S NE on up to Maine. Any loose outdoor items should be brought inside. If you were planning to put up Christmas decorations today, I’d advise waiting until Tuesday, especially if you live near coastal sections (of course no need to watch football in the Northeast these days except the Bills).
WHEN TO EXPECT STORM
As mentioned earlier, this storm isn’t sticking around for long Monday. And besides the damaging winds and heavy rainfall, you’ll notice a surge of very warm humid air pushing from the south as the storm approaches. Pre-dawn temps will be in the low 40s Monday through out the Northeast (upper 30s in MA VT NH and ME) but will spike into the 60s in the late morning to early afternoon! Heavy downpours (possible isolated thunderstorms and maybe a waterspout) arrive from the south, moving NE, arriving approximately at below time frames:
- DC: Monday 1-4am, ending late morning
- Most of NJ/NY/LI by daybreak, ending early/mid afternoon
- Hudson Valley/CT/MA/RI, late morning, ending after sundown
- VT/NH/Cape, by around 12pm (ME by early afternoon), ending early to late evening
While the strongest winds will die down late in the day into the early evening along the Jersey shore and LI, it’s going to be long night further north along the Cape, the Seacoast and Maine (where winds will be whipping until Tuesday morning). The unseasonably warm air sticks around Tuesday (partly sunny and breezy) but only up in SNE to Maine with the mercury topping out in the 50s, but drops in the mid 40s for highs in the Hudson Valley, NYC, and NJ from Basking Ridge all the way down to Baltimore.
For today, get out outside as skies will be mostly sunny across the Northeast with seasonal temperatures (see above) ranging from the upper 40s to low 50s. Wednesday and Thursday remain dry, yet a bit colder with temps topping out in the low to mid 40s (low 30s overnight). Next change for rain is Friday into Saturday. I’ll be following up early this week with details on what’s ahead in the near term (tracking multiple storm threats the 2nd week December along with colder temps, except Maine), even the Sunshine State gets a bit chilly the next 2 weeks, the forecast for the rest of the Month, along with my outlook for January – March. That’s it for now. Remember to bring in loose items, delay a day putting up decorations, get outdoors today, and that weather never sleeps!