Morning folks! 10 days have passed since my last post and hope everyone continues to stay healthy. I wanted to put out a note on tonight’s soaker, address this cool and wet pattern and when we can expect more seasonal temperatures. There is a brief warmup coming this weekend, but first we need to get through tomorrow’s system. While not a strong Nor’easter I alluded to back on 4/20 as a possibility, it’s still a formidable storm that will pack strong wind gusts (esp along the coast) and heavy downpours drenching the eastern seaboard. Flood Watches are up for northern NJ and a High Wind Warning is up for Cape May and coastal Atlantic County (Wind Advisories for southern portion of the state). Fortunately, it does it’s dirty work while we’re asleep.
WHAT AND WHEN
After a windy night, winds actually continue to pickup through out the day, gusting up to 30mph inland (40 to 50mph along the coast). Skies will be mainly cloudy with sprinkles/isolated showers. It’ll be very humid this morning (given south winds). Temps will be in the low to mid 50s this morning, rising into the low 60s (normal high/low: 66°F/49°F; record high on this date in Central Park: 91°F 1942, low 32°F 1874).
Our system arrives in NJ between 7-8pm tonight and by 9pm in NYC. Rainfall will become heavy, totaling between 1-3″ before tapering off by daybreak Friday (by early afternoon in Southern New England). However, the first day of May will be anything but merry with more dreary conditions. Skies will be mostly cloudy along with isolated showers and temps in the low60s. Great news for the weekend tho. Aside from an early morning shower Saturday, both days will see partly to mostly sunny skies with the mercury climbing into the upper 60s to yes, the low 70s in spots (low 80s down in the Carolinas Sunday to low to mid 60s up in SNE).
For Sunday night into Monday morning, a passing shower moves through yet skies clear with temps in the upper 60s. Yet for the rest of the week, we’re back again to cooler then normal conditions with temps topping out in the upper 50s to low 60s (overnight lows in the low to mid40s, upper 30s in nwburbs). Our next systems moves though next Wednesday into Thursday. The preliminary outlook for Mother’s Day next Sunday, May 10th, is party sunny skies with temps in the mid 60s.
When do we break this cool pattern? Well, for the extended outlook, it looks like we’re stuck at least for the first 2 weeks of May (can’t rule out a warm day or two). However, the 2nd half of May looks like temperatures begin to climb into the 70s to low 80s as we approach Memorial Day. I’ll go into further details in another post on what to expect for late spring and summer. As I alluded to in my earlier posts of a possible active upcoming hurricane season, don’t be surprised to see an early start later in May/June. I attached NOAA’s Atlantic Hurricane names for this year though 2025. Do you see your name?
As a side note, some have asked if I take the pictures that I post as a header. Unless otherwise noted, yes. Besides researching and forecasting weather, I enjoy getting out in the elements (including storm chasing with my son), and capturing Mother Nature in all the seasons. I post many of my pics on Twitter which get picked up through social media (check out my bio on my site for the many who have shared). Thanks as always for reading and just a heads up, at the end of all my posts, there a link to share, like the post, and a comment section. Please feel free to ask any questions or share any thoughts or comments. Stay healthy, laugh more and stay tuned to more updates. And remember, weather never sleeps!