As November Comes to a Close, December Starts Off with a Winter Pose! Still Some Uncertainty on Totals But That’s How it Goes!

Afternoon! Posting this remotely as we’re currently driving our daughter back to college in NH a day early since southern New England won’t be a place to travel tomorrow into Monday. I had a chance to review the overnight and the morning runs on this complex multi part storm which could still provide some +/- surprises still 24 hours out. For the last day of November, we can expect milky skies with temps in the mid40s (normal H/L: 49°F/38°F, record H/L on this date: 70°F 1991, 5°F 1875). 

Ok, onto the main event(s) as we kickoff the first day of December tomorrow (Meteorological winter begins for us weather geeks). As of now Winter Storm Watches are in effect for NNJ (Somerset Morris Hunterdon Warren and Sussex). Let’s discuss timing, what type of precip and where and how much can we expect. As mentioned this system will come to 2 parts. First half will begin mid morning on Sunday with mixed precip moving from SW to NE into NJ. SNJ, including NYC and LI will be mainly rain through out the day as temps remain in the upper30s to low40s along the coast. However, north of 78 into NNJ, EPA and Lower Hudson Valley, Westchester and SCT can expect a mix of sleet and freezing rain during the day, creating treacherous driving conditions. Further north into the upper Hudson Valley to Albany, western MA, SVT and SNH will see significant snowfall on Sunday into Monday. I’d strongly advise any travel if possible. 

Part 2 begins Monday morning and through out the day as the secondary low forms and deepens off the coast driving Arctic air into the region. Depending how far west or east the low travels determines the amount of snow. As discussed many times here over the years, it doesn’t take much to impact accumulations across the tri-state area. Snow will taper off late Monday night around NJ/NYC and into Tuesday afternoon in southern New England. Gut call for Monday schools will be for delays/cancellations limited to NNJ on north. 

Preliminary Snow Totals:
SNJ: south of 195, nil to coating

Philly: 1-3″

NYC: 1-3″

CNJ: north of 195 to Rt78, 1-3″

Rt78 north to 287, 3-5″

NNJ: north of 287, 6-10″ 

Lower Hudson Valley : 8-12″

Upper HV: 12-15″, locally higher 

WMA: 8-15″

SVT: 10-15″

SNH: 10-15″Boston: 3-6″

Tuesday and Wednesday will be mostly sunny and chilly with temps in the low40s. Possible snow showers Thursday and mostly sunny with continued below average temps to close out the week on Friday into next weekend (next Friday and Saturday lows will be in low to mid20s to teens in NJburbs). Sniffing out our next potential winter storm between the 11th to 15th. That’s it for now. I’ll provide an update tomorrow morning on any adjustments and some thoughts on December and the upcoming winter. Time for a brief snooze since weather never sleeps!