A Bombogenesis Blockbuster Blizzard!

Good morning weather folks! Who’s ready and fired up for a sunny 80F day?? I know a few of you right now smiling ear to ear, wishing that were true! So it’s storms like these that make me love weather and meteorology! If you read my bio (about me) above, I mention the Blizzard 1978 that got me hooked. While our upcoming monster won’t be as wide spread and nearly as bad as ’78 (a great year as my Yanks won the Series), Boston got dumped on with then a record 27.1″, a possibility for a close repeat performance. Thank you for the continued donations and new subscribers! So, it’s been 2 days since my last post and now within 24 hours on the arrival of a shutdown Nor’easter for many, but not all. Not much as changed since my Wednesday’s post and my initial important points I highlighted remain in tact. The east track that the GFS was making, which I didn’t agreed with, has since teamed up in agreement with the Euro and NAM. I’m not going to rehash my remarks from my last post. If those who haven’t read it or just jumped on board feel free go back. You can click the home tab at the top which allows you to see my 5 most recent posts, then click next at the bottom to see my earlier posts. Or head to the right column under Archives to chose the months and years of my meteorological missives.

Bottom line, this will be powerful snowstorm dumping a general 1 to 3 feet as mentioned. Outliers will be seen on the low end along the western edge where sharp cutoffs drop off a cliff, as well as on the high end in areas that fall under mesoscale bands where it could snow 3 to 4″ per hour. For today, while everyone runs around clearing out the bread, beer and milk shelves (adding to the supply chain disruptions), temps will rise into the low to mid 30s ahead of the storm across the entire northeast. However, as mentioned on Wednesday, the icebox returns overnight with temps stuck in the teens to low 20s throughout the storm Saturday (bitter wind chills of 0F to 10F below)! Check out Sunday 7am wind chills below!

Don’t be surprised to see isolated snow showers breaking out during the day. Moderate to heavy snow enters DE into S NJ after sundown tonight and quickly spreads northeast overnight. By daybreak, it’ll be snowing for nearly everyone, except in northern parts of VT, NH and ME. As the low deepens off shore, snowfall rates will pickup and intensify along strong winds across the region, especially along coastal sections. Conditions improve for NJ early to mid afternoon yet for SE New England that will worst part. The entire storm moves off shore by Sunday morning. While all of you were sleeping, Blizzard Warnings were posted from Cape May to Camden! This includes the NJ coast, up to the entire Mass, the Seacoast in NH, and southern and central coast of ME! Travel will be dangerous especially with little visibility. If you happen to hear the term Bomb Cyclone or bombogenesis, it refers to a rapid drop in barometric pressure of 24mb in 24 hours. This is the low pressure system I mentioned that forms off the Northeast coast and deepens rapidly. I can go deeper on this for another day.

Rather than provide pretty snow total maps (considering down the road), I’ll provide general ranges for each state and point out bulleye areas. Again these are ranges and with strong winds, besides creating poor to little visibility, will be blowing snow and creating spectacular snow drifts (wait till you see all the pics across social media). There’s risk to the upside on totals given high ratios (fluff factor) described in my previous post.

SC: mostly a dusting throughout the state, an inch or 2 in northern counties of Lancaster, Chesterfield, Marlboro

NC: Blueridge Hwy from Asheville to Boone, 5-10″, between R77 and R1 from Wentworth to Wadesboro: 1-3″ (possible thunder snow)

DC: 2-4″

DE: Millsboro, 9-12″

NJ: coastal counties from Cape May to Rumson, 12-18″, between I95 to 287/202 (Basking Ridge) from Suffern to Stockton, 4-8″, west of 287/202, 3-5″

Hudson Valley: New Paltz 4-8″, Newburgh 3-6″, Langrangeville 3-6″

5 Boroughs: 8-14″

C/E LI: 12-24″ feet (the further east the higher the amounts)

CT: W, 5-10″; C, 10-15, E, 12-24″

RI: 18-24″

MA: W, 5-10″, C 10-20″, E (BULLSEYE) 18-30″ (if under mesoscale bands could see over 3 feet),

NH: SE (from Hollis to Hooksett on east, 18-24″), SW 8-15″ (low-end of range further west), Keene 5-10″, from Concord to Plymouth 6-12″, Waterville 5-10″

ME: SW to SE 12-20″ with higher end of range towards NH border, Loaf 10-15″, Bowdoin 14-20″

Well, that about does it. Again, be sure this morning into afternoon the latest, to prep if you haven’t yet. Especially if you’re along coastal sections due to higher risk of power outages followed by dangerously frigid temps over the next few days. I more than likely won’t do another update unless I see any significant changes. I will be posting on Twitter frequently with updates on totals across all of the Northeast, and personal measurements for my area for the National Weather Service as I’m a trained SKYWARN storm spotter. There may be some storm chasing on this one, perhaps to the ocean to see if I capture some 50+ mph gusts! Lastly, just a brief hint on what’s lurking. After this cold stretch, we have a brief burst of early spring like temps in the low 50s next Thursday followed by a possible flood induced rainstorm the end of next week. However, the Groundhog will wish my daughter a Happy Birthday, see its shadow and declare 6 more weeks of winter! February 5-8th is next chance for more mischief as another arctic blast invades the US setting up a possible major storm. That’s it for now. Bleary eyed but blissfully ecstatic and filled with atmospheric adrenaline. Be safe, buckle and bundle up, gas up the generators, load up on wood, batteries, candles, charge your phones and electronics, and food for a few days if you’re prone to outages, especially in coastal sections. Enjoy digging out Sunday morning, but finish in time for the AFC and NFC Championship games! Fire, football, food, friends, family, frigid Fahrenheit and ferocious flakes, priceless! Ok, I’m done. Remember, weather never sleeps!