Good morning weather folks! So its fair to say its been a pretty active week since my Super Bowl post on the 2/6, with a number of systems moving through the Northeast, especially down the Jersey shore last Thursday (4.1” in Harvey Cedars). In terms of which outperformed (per my title), the game or the short and speedy snow event last Sunday into Monday? Well, the game didn’t live up to the hype on the marque match up (an argument could be made that Brady outperformed; that’s a big statement coming from a Jets fan, perhaps he’ll be the true GOAT if he could win the big one with us, which will never happen). Snow totals were basically in line with my forecast in the cities and the burbs (Central Park 4.5”, Boston 3.7”, Philly 1.7”, Durham 2”, Brewster 4”), and some outperformers: 8” in Syosset, 10” Foxboro, too bad the Superbowl wasn’t played there, and 7.5” in Basking Ridge.
Per my hint last week on a number of possible threats the week of the 15th, we have Monday/Tuesday and Thursday/Friday systems to contend with now. The true blue Arctic airmass that dove into the center and heartland of our country is creating a truly historic winter event in TX right now. It’s extremely rare to see Dallas at 10F and snowing! Texas currently has over 1.8 million without power, temps in the single digits and windchills in the minus teens, an astounding storm, probably the likes we won’t see again. This crippling winter event creating plowable snow, and dangerous ice accumulation will make its narrow track from SW to NE, traveling from Texas and Oklahoma, to W KY, S IN, OH, W PA, upstate NY in ADK, the Greens and the Whites to NW ME. On the eastside of the snow axis, a mix of sleet and freezing rain will create the potential for very dangerous travel conditions, tree damage and widespread power outages. I’ll go over general timing shortly below.
I believe it’s important to explain the difference between sleet and freezing rain, both of which including snow are impacted by temperature changes at different layers of the atmosphere. Sleet is basically pellets of ice or frozen rain drops that you see bouncing off of your car, your deck or table in the back yard. Freezing rain (and more dangerous), is rain that freezes once it hits the surface that’s below 32F, creating a thin dangerous glaze of ice. Hail which some confuse with sleet, generally forms in warm conditions. Hail, or balls of ice, is formed in thunderstorms as water droplets are caught in an updraft into very cold levels of the atmosphere.
Ok, now for the first storm details. First point, no snow for the I95 corridor. That includes, Balt/DC, Philly, NYC. There May be some snow in the NNJ burbs, upper Hudson Valley, NW CT, W MA, and SE NH. As stated above, plowable snow for the northeast will be limited to upstate NY, and the ski country in VT NH and ME. Second point, forecasting freezing rain can be tricky and sometimes models print out much higher amounts. That said, even 0.10” of ice can create extremely dangerous driving conditions. You see all the pileups on the interstates across the country. I don’t care what SUV, truck, 4 wheel drive vehicle you have, it doesn’t matter. That said, the NWS has an Ice Storm Warning in effect for the NJ counties of Hunterdon, Warren, Morris, Sussex, Somerset and W. Passaic from 6pm today until 10am Tuesday. Up to 0.20” to 0.30” is forecasted creating possible tree damage and power outages. There will be some slick spots 1st thing this morning but precip doesn’t move into NJ and the rest of the tri-state area including NYC and LI until in the late afternoon to the evening rush hour. I will say with a bit cautious optimism the overnight short term models are printing mainly rain as temps climb above freezing overnight tonight into the upper 30s to low40s Tuesday. All precip ends by Tuesday morning for the tri-state area.
For SE New England, early Tuesday could be mess as a mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain move in before sunrise creating a treacherous morning commute. Overnight models have trended towards a warmer solution with less accumulating snow towards the coast, yet the threat for freezing rain is still very much on the table. All precip ends in New England by early afternoon Tuesday. Temps drop Tuesday night into the low 20s to upper teens for the entire Northeast, leading to possible areas to re-freeze.
Ok, lets briefly discuss storm # 2, which has a colder solution with potential of accumulating snow for the I95 corridor Thursday into Friday. While the devil is in the details, initial temps ahead of the storm will be in the teens to 20s with winds out of the north and a strong 1035 high planted in NE Canada. Initial timing at this point would be for snow moving into the DC/Balt area before sunrise Thursday, later in the morning into NJ/NYC/LI, the afternoon to evening hours for CT/MA on north to NH/VT/ME late Thursday into Friday morning. As the storm moves up the coast, heavy front end snow gets hit with warm air that’s pulled into system from the south leading to a changeover to sleet, freezing rain and rain. I’ll be back with an update later this week. That said, I would adjust your schedules for the end of the week.
Beyond Friday, the threats of hits keep coming with another system moving across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into the Northeast next Monday into Tuesday followed by possible storm the end of next week. Which leads us into March Madness and Model Mayhem. It’s of course a couple weeks out, and plenty can change but there’s an interesting setup (a massive Greenland high, the NAO trending negative, and a ridge building over Alaska) for a classic early March storm. Some of the great snowstorms have been in March which I’ll discuss in another post shortly, along with more details on the end of week storm, and what to expect for the rest of February and March, storm and temperature wise. We are headed into the latter part of the winter, but it’s far from over my friends. That’s it for now. Thanks for reading, be safe on the roads, and stay tuned for more details on this very active pattern! And of course, remember weather never sleeps!