Where were you 10 years ago today? I would find it hard to believe that anyone can’t remember or doesn’t have a story on October 29, 2012, which today is actually our 28th wedding anniversary. And what a celebration it was 10 years ago. Weather forecasting is indeed extremely humbling, similar to golf. Even if you accurately forecast a storm system one to two weeks out, you could be just a 100 miles off, and a foot becomes just a dusting. I am never one to ever toot my own horn, pat myself in the back or say I told you. For my very long term followers, this was one of those storms where I was fortunate to be more than a week ahead, forecasting a left turn and slamming the Jersey Coast and tri-state area. For those who were following me back then and recall my forecast feel free to share your comments below, as well as others who would like to share a few tidbits of that night and days/weeks afterward.
Hurricane Sandy did extraordinary damage, especially given shear diameter, the angle of impact and arrival at high tide. It was the 4th most costliest (appx $75b) storm to hit the US. In terms of categorizing Sandy, the National Hurricane Center called it extra-tropical at landfall given it didn’t maintain certain tropical characteristics. There were winds of 85mph and pressure reading of 945mb, basically a Cat 1 when it went ashore in Brigantine, NJ. Its massive size (tropical force winds extended out over 520miles), storm surge, a trough pulling it NW, the angle at impact, coupled with an astronomical high tide, created an absolutely devastating event. Yet not a major, as the northeast has had in the past.
What many folks don’t realize, either you weren’t born yet, don’t know anyone who has experienced them first hand, or haven’t looked back and read the history, but the Northeast has experienced numerous hurricanes in the past. Just to name a few (you can find the details online for each): Gloria in ’85, CAT1 into LI/CT, Donna ’62 CAT2 into LI, Edna ’54 CAT2 Cape Cod / MV, Carol ’54 CAT3 into RI (135mph winds on Block Island), The Great Atlantic Hurricane ’44 CAT1 into CT/RI, The Great New England Hurricane ’38 CAT3, just to name a few. The records go all the way back to the 17th century. Also, recent hurricanes are not getting larger or more powerful (all the meteorological historical statistics from previous canes are there to see and are well documented). The difference now is that the population growth along with structures that have been built along the coast and in direct path of these storms, have doubled and tripled over time. There by, leading to significantly more damage.
While we’ve been quite lucky, there’s no reason we can’t have a repeat of the 1940s and 1950s where over 23 hurricanes ravaged the east coast. In fact, 10 Majors slammed the east coast from the Carolinas to New England from 1954 to 1960.
10 Years Later Today
For today and tomorrow, get outdoors as we have yet another classic fall weekend for the Northeast. Today will be a bit on the cooler side with temps in the upper 50s but under mostly sunny skies. Clouds move in Sunday later in the morning to afternoon, but temps climb into the low to mid 60s. Fortunately, the forecast for Halloween lacks any howling winds or ghoulish gusts, terrifying temps or devilish downpours. There’s a chance for some after dark showers from Durham, NC, up to DC, to Darien, but mainly dry further north. Will update on any creepy changes. As far as our current hurricane season is concerned, it doesn’t officially end until the last day of November. There’s a possibility we may see one or two more tropical storms forming in the Caribbean and threatening Florida or the East Coast in the coming weeks. Details coming.
As far as what’s ahead, expect an active upcoming November. For the next couple of weeks expect temperatures to be above normal, which I strongly suggest you enjoy. But look for conditions to change beginning in the middle part of this month both on temperatures and active storm tracks, which could bring potential strong nor’easters along with snow inland before the end of the month. Sniffing out the potential for an early start to winter for all you snow lovers out there. But the devil is in the details on what lurking on the horizon. Expect a lot more posts in the coming weeks. As always, thanks for reading and buckle up folks. Weather may be quiet for now, but not for long. Enjoy the weekend and remember Weather never sleeps!
Below are just a few of many pics I captured 10 years ago…
- My featured image is from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite 13 (GOES-13) captured this natural-color image of Hurricane Sandy at 1:45 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time (17:45 Universal Time) on October 28, 2012The feature image
On October 22, 2012, I was playing in a golf outing when I got a text from Gregg saying that the storm of the century was coming next week, was going to come up the coast and make a left turn into the NJ/NY area – mentioned that he was going to Long Beach Island on Friday to help board up his in-laws house, said he hopes its still there after the storm. I said the house? He said, no LBI. This was a full WEEK BEFORE the storm hit, nobody even mentioned it on the local news until Thursday/Friday of that week and even then, nobody described the brunt of what was to come except Gregg. I showed it to my foursome and in a weeks time, WeatherRemarks had a few new followers. That storm was like nothing I ever saw, microburst through my neighborhood in Basking Ridge took out 5 of my trees and destroyed my fenced in garden. I watched a tree across the street fall and break a telephone pole in half, creating a Fourth of July sparks show and crushing my neighbor’s car down to two feet high. A never forget where I was moment.
Great recap and awesome memory Mike. Much appreciated!
Great compiled look-back. It’s sobering what mother nature can do.
Thanks Maria, agreed.
10 years later…Now we know what south Florida has to look forward to.
This is unbelievable. The pictures you captured left me speechless and the before and after slider of Mantoloking that you created is brilliant on your part. You should be on the weather channel.
Thanks Kelly!